- Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com
From the land grant university in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market reported as the April 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleeson. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Mike Zuzolo. He's at GlobalComResearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas, and Eric Snodgrass will be here too to take a look at the weather forecast. If you can stay with us for the whole of the hour, you will hear all of our commodity week program with our guest, Colin Waters, from the Illinois Corn Growers Association, Shane Holtor with Logik Ag Marketing out of Alta, Iowa and Aaron Curtis from Midco in Bloomington, Illinois.
Todd Gleason: 00:38If not, you can hear the whole of the program up online right now at willag.org. That's WILLag.0rg. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. May corn for the day settled at $4.78 and 3 quarters of a cent, a penny and a half higher. July up a penny and a half as well at $4.85 and a half, and new crop December '3 quarters of a cent lower.
Todd Gleason: 01:04Settlement price at $4.55 and 3 quarters of a cent per bushel. May soybeans today down three and a quarter. It finished at $10.49 and 3 quarters. July at $10.59 and a quarter two and three quarters lower in November, down a half at $10.35. The bean meal, a dollar 30 higher.
Todd Gleason: 01:22The bean oil, 37ยข lower. And July soft red winter wheat, up a half at $5.45. The hard red at $5.51, a quarter of a cent higher in that harvest month July contract. Mike Zuzlow, Global Com Research dot com out of Atchison, Kansas now joins us to discuss the marketplace. Hi, Mike.
Todd Gleason: 01:41Thank you much for being with us. It's been a couple of weeks since we've talked. I know you've been watching the marketplace really closely. What has been top of your mind over that two week period?
Mike Zuzolo: 01:53Yeah, that's a great question, Todd. It's kind of nice sometimes to be able to take a step back and talk a little less frequently so that you can get a little bit more rhythm and routine, especially in these trade tariff times. And I think what we've seen here the last couple of weeks is a continuation of more pressure on China, less pressure on other trading partners. It does feel as though in the last few days, maybe the dam is starting to break as far as the tariff pressures, even China and The United States are now on again, off again, instead of just not talking at all. And there are supposed to be some really close trade deals coming, whether it's Japan, or South Korea or India, I would say to answer your question more directly is we're really at a point now with planting that we do need these trade deals as President Trump's one hundred days is coming up here next week.
Mike Zuzolo: 02:48I think the whoever wins the battle of getting most or the key nations trade agreements bilaterally will then be able to take more of an offensive position and have more leverage between The US China issue. Think that's going to be the hardest nut to crack and continue to be because there's just so many things you'll have to unpack. So when I look at it from that perspective, when the last two weeks have developed, it seems to me that between the corn planting, the export demand, the the I think it's become more clear that the South American crop is going to be there, especially for soybeans. And also the the idea that did did China and Mexico both buy more ahead of the tariffs and ahead of even right after president Trump's victory in the election? And it seems with Friday's purchases of corn by Mexico and the last four weeks of export demand news, it does look like China has probably bought ahead and soy Mexico has not, it would be my take.
Mike Zuzolo: 03:50So I'd still put fundamentals on corn as the best commodity out there. That puts me in a situation where I really want to get some hedges in place for soybeans. If we can continue this rally next week, both last of the old crop and and get more deeply into the new crop. One thing I did find out from USDA that I wanted to pass along to you and the listeners was I did send them a note asking them what they would do in the WASDE report for May because the Department of Energy took down a bunch of their expectations for 2025 energy demand, and they said it was specifically because of the tariffs. And that got me to thinking, we're going to get the new twenty five-twenty six supply demand fundamentals.
Mike Zuzolo: 04:34Will USDA do the same thing? The contact that I talked to said, look, I don't run the WAOB, but I reached out to them on the exact same thing. And they said whatever's on the books is what we're going to have to look at. So I would not be surprised to see some demand adjustments. And I don't know if they're going to be higher or lower, I would guess lower for some of these key commodities.
Mike Zuzolo: 04:53Something to think about between now and mid May.
Todd Gleason: 04:55Yeah. And USDA has signaled that's what at least that's what they would do every month in the world ag supply and demand estimates. The World Ag Outlook Board has since March, March and April, I guess, just two months has said, whatever's on the books is what we will use at that point could show some devastating impact, would think for soybean exports.
Mike Zuzolo: 05:15It's a real possibility. And if we do straighten out the planting window, because there's still quite a bit of an issue with the weather models being highly inaccurate in the Western Corn Belt and the hard red Wheat Belt. Now turning drier again as of Friday afternoon for those two areas and bringing up the moisture levels for the Upper Mississippi River Valley and Ohio River Valleys. Both of them already set so saturated. But if we would straighten planning out and then all of sudden get a negative report, I think you want to be in a position to have something underneath you in case that happens.
Todd Gleason: 05:48Is corn under as much of an issue as it's related to that demand side? Mexico would be the place, but I don't recall that they have a tariff. Did they place a tariff on goods coming across, particularly agricultural goods coming across the border?
Mike Zuzolo: 06:06No. Not to my knowledge. And Mexico did buy about 280, 285,000, I think, of, corn on Friday. About half of that was this current year. There's been more renewed observations in Mexico about Northern Mexico's drought worsening, actually creating water problems for the Southern US because their drought is so bad.
Mike Zuzolo: 06:26I I just don't think that they're in a position. And I think the the Trump administration played it smartly to lay off of Canada and Mexico. And if they were gonna go after China, keep, you know, the rest of our our trade and agriculture very well suited. So that's kinda where I'm at right now.
Todd Gleason: 06:40Yeah. So a 10% tariff from The United States on products coming in from other places. But as you'll hear in commodity week, if you can stay with us for the whole hour, Aaron Curtis reminds me gently that it is about the tariffs the other countries impose on products coming from us that really matter. So China is the one that comes top of mind because that tit for tat between China and The United States push things to what people have referred to as an embargo. What else are you watching in the marketplace at this time?
Mike Zuzolo: 07:09You know, would say the cattle market has gotta be talked about. We made some new record highs at least twice this week for in fat cattle with with the pressure coming off Wall Street. The pork and bean trade, the beans and the hogs came back around nicely for the most part this week. I think because of the easing China fears, But the hogs came off of the idea that they're going to pressure the cattle. Like the soybeans, I think we're getting into pretty stratospheric areas.
Mike Zuzolo: 07:35Seasonally, it gets tough to keep this kind of market rallying. So soybeans and cattle are the most important things to be watching for me in the next seven to ten days as far as getting floors underneath me if I can get a little bit more up on this market.
Todd Gleason: 07:48July wheat has been trending down since June of last year. At the bottom of the marketplace, I guess sideways at the moment.
Mike Zuzolo: 07:57Yeah. And I could say I think we could say pretty safely. It doesn't have a weather premium in it.
Todd Gleason: 08:01It does not. Hey. Thank you much. Anything else before I let you go?
Mike Zuzolo: 08:05No. Thanks, Todd.
Todd Gleason: 08:06Alright. That is Mike Susslow. He is with GlobalComResearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. Let's return now to last Monday's USDA weekly Crop Progress Report. Brad Summa is with USDA NASS that's located in St.
Todd Gleason: 08:24Louis. He is the statistician responsible for both Illinois and Missouri. Planting progress in the two states as of earlier this week showcased the relative difference between the weather conditions east and west of the river. Illinois, for instance, was about average. However, Missouri, like much of the Western Corn Belt, was running ahead of pace, says Summa.
Brad Summa: 08:46In Missouri, we're up in both Corn, we're already at 33% and which is up 80% from the five year average of 25. And and soybeans, we are 15% planted compared to the five year average of six, so we're up nine points there. So, yeah, we're we're off to to a decent start, I would say. And I would also add, I am continually amazed at how fast farmers can get things done when they have that window of opportunity. I've seen years where you'll have weeks of rain and wet weather and things kinda get behind, and then they have that brief window of opportunity where things dry out.
Brad Summa: 09:30And, man, they can make up for lost time.
Todd Gleason: 09:33On that note, some are reflected on what happens when fields are wet and flooded.
Brad Summa: 09:37For the big picture, as far as crop production, it's not as devastating as it may seem because there's a small percent of that cropland that's actually close to a river that's flooding. We see this a lot of times in flood years. People think there's just, you know, the crops could be devastated. But again, things dry out fast. Farmers can get back in the fields and make up for time quickly, and there's just not a a huge chunk of cropland that is subject to that flooding near the rivers.
Todd Gleason: 10:09Brad Summa is with USDA NASS. He's located in Saint Louis, Missouri and is a statistician that oversees reports for both states. Our thanks go to NAFB member Cesar Delgado for providing us with the audio for this report. Eric Snodgrass now joins us from Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrabal to talk about the weather forecast and what's been happening across the Corn Belt. Hi, Eric.
Todd Gleason: 10:44Thank you for being with us. Farmers probably out of the field today. They'll be wanting some planting windows to open back up. Where do you see that happening across the Midwest?
Eric Snodgrass: 10:55Yeah. So we had a pretty wet Easter weekend, and that's also gonna get folks wondering if we're gonna see wet conditions every weekend, you know, for the next seven. Right? There's that old wives' tale about that. And the reality is we got rain moving through now, and then we have a system that's coming through California this weekend that's gonna get to us by next Monday, Tuesday.
Eric Snodgrass: 11:11So we still have a couple more chances that are gonna really kinda limit field work. Now if you have higher ground, I know it's kinda hard to find in Illinois, but if you have it and it's draining quickly, you might get a window to open back up because temperatures are gonna be warm in between, which is gonna allow things to dry down a little quicker. But the good news is that once we start the month of May, I think that the atmosphere has really shifted the jet stream pretty far to the north. That's a good signal for more mild conditions. And it also takes away the risk of these repeated events where you're getting two rainfall events a week or more.
Eric Snodgrass: 11:45And they start to stretch out a little bit. In fact, some of the week two forecast data, which would be what, May 3 through the tenth or something like that, they're starting to show a drier signal for us. So I like where things are going, but the reality is, you know, we've lately had a lot of these windows tighten up pretty tight because of rainfall events, especially last weekend. And a lot of folks, I think, missed an opportunity this week because the soils just weren't ready to be worked yet after such heavy rains last, Sunday. So we're still looking for those windows.
Eric Snodgrass: 12:15I just think they start to show up once we get into May, which is a a good which is good news.
Todd Gleason: 12:19So I do have some questions about some drier areas in the Corn Belt. Thank you to Agrabal. I have a whole series of fields across the Midwest. The one place that really seems like it is dry, and I follow a field in Freeport. Mhmm.
Todd Gleason: 12:36And from the first of the month, now they've had about 2.3 inches there. Uh-huh. However, they've only had not quite five inches of rainfall since the beginning of the year, and they're normally four inches more than that, around nine. So what what's happening within that northern far northern part of Illinois?
Eric Snodgrass: 12:56Yeah. I mean it's honestly, you don't have to go too much farther north of us and start to see the lack of subsurface soil moisture. And when you look at these next seven days, the forecast keeps drying out for that region. In other words, we don't continue to see higher rainfall totals as we've seen elsewhere. So we've we've kinda missed that area.
Eric Snodgrass: 13:13And given the drier subsurface soil, it gets us concerned about what that could mean later on in the season. Now, like I said, there is still moisture coming in the recent abit, the 2.3 or so that they got, they're they're gonna use that and they're gonna use that good Illinois soil to to make a good run about it. But that's not the only spot. Right? I got a huge chunk of Nebraska that's been incredibly dry the last two weeks.
Eric Snodgrass: 13:35Most of the Dakotas have been dry except parts of North Dakota had a couple of weather systems roll through there lately. And so we still have this patchwork of drought. In fact, new drought monitor released, we've only seen about a 5% reduction in total area in the month of April in drought. And don't forget where our heaviest rains were. We're Mid South getting over to parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, the Red River Valley of the South where they've had just tremendous flooding.
Eric Snodgrass: 14:01So it's it's it's something to take note of that you would not look back on this spring and just say, oh, it was so ideal for the whole of the Corn Belt. There's places that have had way too much in other spots where they wish I think they would have been sharing some of that rainfall in the flooded out areas. So, yeah, I'm glad you brought that up, Todd.
Todd Gleason: 14:16Okay. So a couple of other things. It's been warm, and and folks have planted. There's moisture. That means the the corn and or soybeans is likely to pop out of the ground fairly quickly.
Todd Gleason: 14:29That will scare people just a little bit on the idea of, hey. Wait a second. What if we get a cold air mass that drops down here? Do we have any risk of frost coming?
Eric Snodgrass: 14:38None that I can find. And overall, if you look over the next fifteen days, I think that Central Illinois will pick up around 250 GDDs, which means if you got some in the ground, it should get out with that kind of heat. So we start to worry about this. And I got a good question from a guy last week out in Nebraska because he was rapidly planting ahead of some rain that was coming to Eastern Nebraska. And he said, Eric, I'm really worried about this May I think it's May 12 there is a full moon.
Eric Snodgrass: 15:03He says, Zaiser, what's going on with frost and full moons? I said, well, it it's really not that the full moon brings the frost. It's the fact that if you can see the full moon, it's clear skies, light winds, and high pressure, which allows the ground to quickly lose its heat, you know, radiative heat transfer, and you just get a frost to them. So that's the reality of it is if if clouds are out and if the wind is up, then you don't get the frost. If it's clear and and calm, you can get it.
Eric Snodgrass: 15:30But I don't Todd, I don't see anything. The jet stream is way far to the north. We have plenty of mild air that keeps coming up from the south, And, it's it's just I just don't see frost risk. I mean, I was maybe looking at May 4 as dropping some cooler weather in, but, not that frost. I mean, we may touch upper thirties again at some point, but I don't see low thirties, and that's a good that's a that's a bit of good news overall.
Todd Gleason: 15:54Indeed. So since we're in the month of May, what does the rest of May and the summer maybe look like? Have you thought about that much?
Eric Snodgrass: 16:01I have a lot, and I'm gonna tell you something. The the models right now are trying to get us drier in May. Now most times, we don't care about that. Alright. Bring in some drier weather, especially if April was wet.
Eric Snodgrass: 16:11Let's get everything finished and get going. And then everybody says, as soon as it's about a week after they plant, like, bring it back. Bring back the rain. And they I think they think I can control it. I cannot.
Eric Snodgrass: 16:20Just to be clear with everybody listening. I wish I could, but I can't. But the issue here, Todd, is that I'm gonna throw out some analog years we've talked about before. And these years are chosen on two things. How close do they match what we've seen in March and April, and how closely do they match the ocean temperature pattern?
Eric Snodgrass: 16:37So by listening, here they are. I've got ninety six and ninety nine. I've got o six and o eight. I've got eleven and twelve, and I got 17 in the mix. You put all those years together in composite, and they look like what we are experiencing right now, both ocean temperatures and the moisture.
Eric Snodgrass: 16:58Now here's the risky part. There's two of those years, which of course, stuck out in everybody's heads, which are eleven and twelve. Of that list, those are the only two years that had below trend national yields, which means the other four had or the excuse me. The other five had above trend years or trend year excuse me. Trend yield on those years.
Eric Snodgrass: 17:19So where was the heat? Mainly Western Corn Belt, mainly the Northern Plains, and that's where I think the risk is gonna be this upcoming summer. Now, of course, all of this can change in a moment, and that's why we talk every Friday. But right now, I'm really concerned about those years being analog years putting more heat and drought stress West Of The Mississippi than east. But we'll watch it together, and if that changes, we'll know.
Todd Gleason: 17:43We'll check-in in another seven days. Thank you.
Eric Snodgrass: 17:45Yep. You bet.
Todd Gleason: 17:46Eric Snodgrass is with Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrabal joined us here on this Friday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world. Find us online at willag.org, w I l l a g 0 r g. There you'll find our daily programming to listen to anytime you'd like, and you'll also find our commodity week program. If you can stick with us, you'll hear that for the rest of this hour.
Todd Gleason: 18:14Otherwise, you'll hear a portion of it, and you can find the whole of it online again at willag.0rg. And many of these radio stations will carry it over the weekend. Online you can also read the latest information from the crop scientist, the animal scientist, the agricultural economist at the University of Illinois. Two ways to do that at our website again willag.org or you can find it at farmdocdaily.illinois.edu.