Apr 23 | Closing Market Report

Todd Gleason: 00:00

From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market reported as the April 2025. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleeson. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets and trade across the planet with Greg Johnson from TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com, the elevator owned by FS here in Champaign County.

Todd Gleason: 00:23

And then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast. Drew Lerner is here from World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. With him, we'll take a look at what's been happening in the Northern Hemisphere, recap the rainfall we've had in the Corn Belt and parts of the Southern United States, the impact it's having. And It is public radio for the farming world. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

Todd Gleason: 01:08

May corn for the day settled at four dollars seventy two. That was three and three quarters of a cent lower. July at $4.79 and a quarter down four, and December new crop, 3 and a half cents lower at $4.54 and a half for the corn. May beans at $10.40 and a quarter, up five and a quarter. July soybeans, $10.50 and a quarter, four and a quarter higher.

Todd Gleason: 01:27

And new crop November at $10.27 and a half, up 1¢. Bean meal futures down a dollar 10¢. Bean oil, 33¢ higher. Soft red winter wheat in the July at $5.43 and a half, down six and three quarters. The hard red July at $5.50 and a quarter, 8¢ lower.

Todd Gleason: 01:44

Live cattle futures in Chicago settled at $208.10, a dollar and 82 and a half cents higher. Feeder cattle at two ninety two seventeen and a half, up 92 and a half cents, and lean hogs for a hundred pounds at a hundred dollars and 15¢, 12 and a half cents lower for the day. Greg Johnson from TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com right here in Champaign County at the elevator owned by FS now joins us on this Wednesday to discuss the marketplace. Hi, Greg.

Todd Gleason: 02:12

Thanks for being with us.

Greg Johnson: 02:13

Oh, you're very welcome. Good to be with you, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 02:15

Farmers were out of the field for just a bit, but they've made, quite a little bit of headway in our area, I believe. Do you think has been done? And you can look back at the Monday USDA report if you want to.

Greg Johnson: 02:28

Yeah. The, the state numbers, weren't real good. We've done more in the North where it's been drier here in the central part of the state. We've had a few days where we stopped and started and got a little bit done. And then in the South, very, very little has been done.

Greg Johnson: 02:43

And so once again, we get a couple of days here today, tomorrow, and then rain comes in Friday. So then we might sit on our hands for a little bit. So by the time the rains come in this weekend, I think here in Central Illinois, we could be 20% down on corn, 40% down on beans, but that's just here in Champaign County, beef Central Illinois. I think when the numbers come out on Monday for the entire state, we'll only see an increase last week, where this week we were at 7% planted on corn, that might be up to 15 for the state. And then beans, we're at 10% for the state.

Greg Johnson: 03:18

That could be 25%. And both those numbers are slightly ahead of normal, so nobody's pushing the panic button as far as planting delays yet. In fact, it's been so dry and still is dry in a lot of areas that I think some farmers would actually welcome the rain, even if that means not getting the beans and corn planted quite as quickly as what they would otherwise.

Todd Gleason: 03:40

Over the past few trading sessions, soybeans have managed to make some gains. Why do you suppose that's the case?

Greg Johnson: 03:46

Part of it is the dollar is a lot weaker on days when the stock market gets hit and we think the economy is going to slow down. The dollar has really taken a hit. But then there's also inflationary talk about as a result of the tariffs, that continues to happen. So both of those would be somewhat friendly for soybeans. There is some talk here today that The US and Chinese are getting along better.

Greg Johnson: 04:16

Know, one day that talk is positive, the next day it's not. So today's one of positive days, and so that may be one reason why the beans are up a little bit. But we have to remember too, fundamentally, a lot less bean acres getting planted at 83,500,000 acres of beans versus 95,300,000 acres of corn with the intention. So that keeps the stocks number pretty tight on beans until we see whether we plant more bean acres or what kind of yield we could attach to that. So all those uncertainties probably are a little bit supportive of soybeans.

Greg Johnson: 04:47

Plus they didn't rally near as much as when corn was rallying, so so it didn't have near as much to give back. You know, the corn's starting to give back a little bit, but, as we get it planted, but, the beans never did rally as much as the corn did, so obviously, it doesn't have to go down quite as much.

Todd Gleason: 05:03

From your perspective, what does demand look like for soybeans at this point?

Greg Johnson: 05:06

We're slightly better than what the USDA is using for export, to meet the USDA's export projections. So, basically, we're right on target. So it all boils down to will China buy what they normally buy from us in the fall, and that's still too far away to put a number on. So at this point, I guess you just assume that we're going to hit the USDA's export target and no more, no less, and obviously that'll change, but it'll change based on the talks between The US and China as far as tariffs are concerned because if they don't get that resolved, China's gonna do all in their power to buy as many beans as they can from South America and only buy what they absolutely have to from us unless this, trade tension gets resolved.

Todd Gleason: 05:55

So in the May report, USDA for old crop and new crop will have to take the policy in place into consideration. That probably throws a zero in new crop, at least, I think, for a while. I don't know. Then with old crop, they don't really import at this time of the year from The United States other than what they've already purchased. I suppose, though, that they could cancel shipments.

Todd Gleason: 06:20

Do you think that will happen?

Greg Johnson: 06:22

Not not as many as in past years. So, yes, they could cancel some, and that would be a little negative. But I think there's so much uncertainty from day to day, let alone from month to month. My best guess is the USDA just leaves those numbers alone for another month, and there's always time to change them down the road. But, I mean, unless they're they've got some, you know, privy to some inside information that, that nobody else seems to know about, I don't know how you can project what China is or isn't gonna do.

Todd Gleason: 06:50

Yeah. I I wonder about that because they will use the policy that's in place. So if there's a tariff in place, they'll use it regardless of any potential changes. They have told us that, and they say they will use it unless there's an end date on it. They will use it all the way out.

Todd Gleason: 07:08

So it'll be interest it'll be interesting to see how how that looks. Corn demand, still good?

Greg Johnson: 07:14

Yes. Corn demand is still good. Mexico continues to still buy corn. Colombia, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, all very good. There's several theories about why that export pace has been so good.

Greg Johnson: 07:29

Some people say front running ahead of the potential tariffs that may or may not take place in ninety days. But regardless of the reason, exports have been good. We're well ahead of schedule and some traders were looking for USDA to up the export number last month and still think that it could get increased again. But at the very least, we don't look for any, reductions in exports. So carryout is, 1.3, one point four in that, category for old crop corn, but then you throw the extra four to 5,000,000 acres of corn in a normal yield, and all of a sudden your carryout for the new crop is closer to 2,000,000,000 bushels than the 1.3 or 1.4.

Greg Johnson: 08:10

So we've got the very tight well, I don't wanna say very tight. We have tight, old crop stocks, but, potentially, we'll have, plenty by the time we get to this fall.

Todd Gleason: 08:22

So the hope would be, I suppose, that, the export number would be increased to take a couple of hundred or 50,000,000 or whatever it is they increase exports by if they do off of the carryout this year and, try to whittle down next year's, carryout as well would be helpful over time. What are farmers asking if they're calling at this point? And my guess is they're asking how's everybody else doing compared to me on the planting phase But if they're calling, what are they asking about, at this point?

Greg Johnson: 08:54

Yeah. Yeah. The the all all all focus right now is just on getting the crop planted, and and that's what they're doing. And we haven't talked about it today, but we've talked about it in the past. There are forecasters out there talking about dry conditions, certainly, maybe not hot, but certainly dry conditions later on this year.

Greg Johnson: 09:13

And if you look at a soil moisture map, Northern Illinois, Iowa, The Dakotas are still well below normal on moisture. So that's great for now. It allows them to get the crop planted, but they just don't have any moisture in reserve. And so they're gonna rely on some timely rains or a change in the pattern. So there's enough uncertainty about what their crops are gonna do that this market hasn't really wanted to sell off very much, and the farmers just haven't had much reason to wanna sell new crop corn because it hasn't rallied as much as the old crop corn has.

Greg Johnson: 09:48

So, farmers are content, I think, to wait. And and if you they waited till mid April, they're probably gonna wait till June, July, and and see what the forecast and the weather looks like then before they make any more sales.

Todd Gleason: 10:00

And before I let you go, basis for old crop recovered from the hard pressures that came in the big sales time during the winter months?

Greg Johnson: 10:08

Yes. Yes. They have, they continue to improve. You know, the the demand in the East, seems to be, better than the West, and so we can hit the Eastern market as well as the Gulf. So our basis has gotten better, and, it seems like everybody else's here in Central Illinois basis has gotten better too.

Greg Johnson: 10:29

So yes, corn basis is better, bean basis, slightly better. I think more in sympathy with the corn basis getting better than anything else. But, yeah, farmers we're probably not as good as we were a year or two ago at this time, but certainly better than we were back in January and February when we had the big rally. Farmers, it was basically like a second harvest. Farmers were selling so much that, basis levels had to drop to try to slow that movement down and to get farmers and elevators to store that crop.

Greg Johnson: 11:00

Once that, farmer selling stopped in mid February, then the basis has been improving ever since.

Todd Gleason: 11:06

Thank you very much, Greg.

Greg Johnson: 11:08

Thank you, Todd.

Todd Gleason: 11:09

That's Greg Johnson. He is with TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com. Joined us on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. Find us online at willag.org.

Todd Gleason: 11:20

That's willag.0rg. Our theme music is written, performed, produced in courtesy of Logan County, Illinois Farmer, Tim Gleason. While you're in the tractor cab, just a quick reminder of the resources available from University of Illinois Extension. You can check out the willag.org website of course where you'll find a combined RSS feed that's just an article feed that pulls from the crop scientist, the ag economist, the animal scientist at the University of Illinois. Puts it all there right in one easy to use click and read place.

Todd Gleason: 12:04

That's at willag.0rg. Of course, you can always go to the PharmDoc website as well at pharmdocdaily.illinois.edu. And you can check out the PharmDoc YouTube website at youtube.com/@PharmDoc for the latest in videos from the PharmDoc team. Drew Lerner from World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City now joins us to take a look at the growing regions across the planet. Hello, Drew.

Todd Gleason: 12:37

Thanks for being with us.

Drew Lerner: 12:38

Yeah. Thanks. I appreciate the opportunity. Hope you had a great holiday weekend.

Todd Gleason: 12:42

It was a magnificent holiday weekend. Thank you very much. Let's recap some of the rainfall, speaking of the holiday weekend, that fell across, the Corn Belt, and the Southern Part of The United States and the issues that it has created and where maybe there hasn't been as much rain as well.

Drew Lerner: 13:01

Yeah. Well, you know, for the most part, we do have a lot of moisture around in quite a few areas. But the the one of the things that has been happening here recently is we've been seeing some upper seventy and eighty degree temperatures when it hasn't been raining. And that is a very important thing to keep in the back of our minds. It doesn't take that long to dry out the soil when we are that warm.

Drew Lerner: 13:25

And it does look like temperatures will be near to above normal through a big part of the next ten days and maybe longer. So I think once we shut down some of the rain, we might be able to do a little bit better. But it will be a matter of patience here. We do have or have had quite a bit of rain across a big part of the country in the last week or so. In some areas, too much moisture, certainly in parts of Oklahoma and Missouri.

Drew Lerner: 13:55

We've had some new flooding occurring in some of those areas. We have managed to keep the Southeast corner of the country a little dry by us. That would be Florida into parts of Southern Georgia and then to a portion of the Carolinas. And then we still have the flooding that's going on along the rivers in the Lower Ohio River Basin area down through the Delta. And, there's a lot of low lying areas that still have standing water and or are exceptionally muddy.

Drew Lerner: 14:24

And the problem with that is that even though we haven't had much rain recently, we've got more rain on the horizon. And so these areas will not have enough time to dry down and get anybody into the fields. And instead, we're probably gonna pick up another, oh, a half to maybe an inch and three quarters, maybe two inches of rain by the time we get to the, middle of next week. It doesn't come all at once, but doesn't matter when it's this wet, every little bit hurts and it's just going to prolong the field working delays. Now we did see some nice increase in moisture up across Minnesota.

Drew Lerner: 15:01

I should say Southeastern Minnesota and Wisconsin and Eastern Iowa, helping to whittle down some of the moisture deficits there. And that was a good thing. And all this kind of looks a little bit like it did in 1968 when we also saw the Upper Midwest get wetter as we move through the month of April. At the same time, we had this wet bias in the Delta and the Tennessee River Basin and Ohio River Basin areas with little dryness in between. But we are kind of easing some of that dryness in between these areas.

Drew Lerner: 15:31

So it's not a bad scenario. I think everyone just needs to be a little bit patient. And about a week to week and a half from now, we will see a lot more sunshine and warm temperatures to help promote field work.

Todd Gleason: 15:43

You know, you can't whip out an analogous year at this time of year and not tell me what the summer, and final crops look like. What did 1968 look like in the summertime for the Midwest?

Drew Lerner: 15:54

Yeah. You know, it is a dangerous thing to do, but, 1968 turned out to be a fairly good year in the, Plains and the in the Western Corn Belt, even though they were dry in the winter and early spring. There there was a timely rain event that occurred, actually, just timely rains in general that occurred through the late spring and into summer. And a lot of those areas ended up doing very well with alternating periods of rain and sunshine with a near to above average precipitation, The greater precipitation being in the North, the Upper Midwest and the Northern Plains. There was a tendency though, during the summer for a drier bias to evolve in 1968 across some of the Lower Eastern Midwest and the Tennessee River Basin, part of the Northern Delta and down to the Gulf Coast, Central Gulf Coast.

Drew Lerner: 16:45

And if you stop and think about it, you know, every time we get into these exceptionally wet biases, there is a tendency to switch the other direction later in the growing season. So to a certain degree that all kind of makes sense that something like 1968 might occur. But if you're concerned about a broad based drought across the country, I don't think this is going to be the year for that, especially if we continue to improve the moisture profile on the plains in Western Corn Belt.

Todd Gleason: 17:12

Speaking of the plains, what do they look like in the Western part of the Corn Belt and the plains at this point, and what does rainfall look like across the whole of the belt in the next seven to ten days?

Drew Lerner: 17:24

Yeah. For the Western Corn Belt, certainly a nice bit of improvement taking place here. We've moistened up the topsoil in many areas, but not so much in the Eastern Dakotas. Some of the Western counties in Minnesota still need some greater amounts of moisture, And that is true all the way back to the Southwest through Nebraska and into parts of the High Plains region. For the rest of the Western Corn Belt, we're doing fairly well.

Drew Lerner: 17:48

Like I said, Missouri's had a lot of rain. Eastern Kansas is catching up really quickly. And even parts of Iowa, the Northwest part of Iowa, those still need some greater amounts of moisture. Well, the next seven to ten days, will likely promote at least in the first week of that period will promote additional moisture. We'll probably see amounts three quarters of an inch to two and a half inches, really across a big part of the Midwest.

Drew Lerner: 18:11

There may be a little band from parts of Missouri across Illinois into Western Michigan that might get a lighter precipitation and may come up a little bit drier at the end of that period than the rest of the region. But they've got some room to spare, I think, at least parts of that region. The the the days, eight through eleven, actually all the way through the second week, think we'll probably see less frequent and less significant rain and have near to above normal temperatures. And so that's why I say we may have ourselves a much better environment for field work at that time.

Todd Gleason: 18:44

Turn your attention to Europe now. What kinds of conditions are there?

Drew Lerner: 18:48

You know Europe looks really good right now but with that said there is still moisture deficits down deep into the ground, across the eastern part of the continent. And, you know, I kind of call this a sleeping dog. It's everything looks fine, but just below the surface there is a dryness issue. It's actually down a little bit deeper than that. But my point here is that if we get into a bridge of high pressure Eastern Europe for a week or ten days, it will not take long for the dryness to come to the surface.

Drew Lerner: 19:23

We'll start hearing folks talk about that. We need to keep an eye on that region right now. Drier tendencies in the Baltic Sea region that we polled and parts of Eastern Germany and from there into Belarus and southward into Ukraine. And much of that region could turn drier. At the moment it looks pretty good, but we are seeing the ground firming up in Ukraine and Russia's southern region right now, which is a reversal of the trend that we saw in the previous ten days.

Drew Lerner: 19:53

The rest of Europe, I think, is gonna be in tip top shape for a while later in the spring and summer. I think Western Europe will probably dry down a little bit heat up.

Todd Gleason: 20:00

We haven't checked in on the growing regions of China yet this season. Tell me about those, please.

Drew Lerner: 20:05

Yeah. For China, another issue, seen another dryness issue seems to be prevalent there. It's not an extreme situation at the moment, but we do want to watch it pretty closely. I think that the Yellow River Basin, the North China Plain, they're pretty dry right now. It's been kind of warm.

Drew Lerner: 20:24

I don't think that's a real big issue because it's still the dry season, so to speak there. And they do irrigate, of course, there are winter crops. So it's not a huge issue at the moment. Now areas between the Yellow And Yangtze Rivers, which would be the, what I call East Central China. There is an official drought underway according to the Chinese meteorological agency, and it has been drier than usual there.

Drew Lerner: 20:49

And we do not expect to see rain for the next couple of weeks in that region and it will be warmer than normal. So I think we need to kind of keep an eye on China. Nothing would be better for these folks that have been hit by the tariffs, from China, like Canada, if they ran into a problem on drought and production potentials that could really change the bottom line for a lot of folks. So it's worth watching. I don't wanna sound like I'm advocating a drought there, but it is drier biased, and we we do need to watch what happens over these next few weeks.

Todd Gleason: 21:22

And finally, the one place on the planet that seems to be in really good shape still are the growing regions for safrinum or second crop corn.

Drew Lerner: 21:31

Absolutely. You know what? A lot of us were very concerned about where we were gonna be when we got to the May 1 and it's nothing close to what we thought. We were concerned it was going to be quite dry. We thought the monsoon would end in mid April and we'd already be drying out.

Drew Lerner: 21:46

It's been raining and it's going to continue raining for another week. We're gonna get to the May 1 and we're gonna have saturated soil conditions. We are seeing signs that the monsoon is going to end though, very soon, probably in that last few days of April and early May. But with the amount of moisture that has occurred here recently, we should see that safrinha crop go through at least the first three weeks of May without much of an issue. If there can be some timely shower activity later in May and keep the temperatures in a seasonable range, there's still a potential that the crop may do better than what a lot of folks think.

Drew Lerner: 22:21

I think we'll still lose a little yield just because the crop was so late going in, but, it's better than what a lot of people were worried about.

Todd Gleason: 22:29

Hey. Thank you much.

Drew Lerner: 22:30

Have a great day and a good week.

Todd Gleason: 22:31

Hey. You too. That's Drew Lerner. He is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Joined us on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report.

Todd Gleason: 22:39

You may hear the whole of the program again anytime you'd like. You can do that from our website. Just click and play from willag.org, w I l l a g 0 r g, or you can subscribe to our podcast. That can happen from the website as well. Hit the podcast tab and then subscribe under the closing market report player, or you can just search out the closing market report in your favorite podcast applications.

Todd Gleason: 23:04

Thank you for listening. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.